Walk through real past scenarios to see how the framework would have read each period.
Viewing scenario
ScenarioCOVID QE Bull Run (2020-21)·Apr 2020 → Nov 2021
Layer 1 — Signal Cascade
Strict P1 Risk-On fired in two windows: May 29 → Jul 24, 2020 and Oct 30, 2020 → Mar 26, 2021. It turned neutral before the May 2021 crash.
Stablecoin MCAP went from ~$6B to $130B+. Under the current %-of-supply rule, P2 was green through most of the cycle.
DXY panic-spiked above 102 in March 2020, then reset. The strict DXY rule flipped Risk-On after three completed sub-100 weekly closes.
P4 was green only in strict rotation bursts. The broad BTC.D collapse was real, but the scored gate only recognizes sharp weekly momentum windows.
P5 fired during depressed-base ETH recoveries in 2020. By the main 2021 altseason, ETHBTC was already above the depressed-base zone, so it is not marked green for the core preset.
Deeply negative through most of 2020 — shorts paying longs as market climbed a wall of worry.
Steadily building with rising price — healthy accumulation, not leverage excess.
Coinbase premium sustained >1% for weeks. Korean premium elevated. Institutional demand clear.
1/5 — Macro Signals
Long Exposure3/4 → Majors + Select AltsFULL ACCUMULATE