Five signals decide when to act. Liquidity leads, price follows.
LiquidPulse reads market liquidity across five signals – M2, stablecoin flows, dollar breadth, BTC dominance, and ETH/BTC. Scope expands as scored gates turn green; sizing uses an evidence-anchored gate-combo cap.
Liquidity moves down the risk curve in a predictable order.
Each signal confirms the next. Money doesn't jump from cash to micro-caps; it walks through dollar-denominated safety, then majors, then liquid alts, then the long tail. Miss the sequence and you miss the move – or get trapped in it.
P1Transition
M2
Liquidity Regime
The foundation. Growing money supply lifts every risk asset; decelerating M2 drains the pool before anything else breaks.
P2Risk-on
Stables
On-chain Capital
Fresh capital entering the ecosystem. Friday weekly % growth is the crypto-native confirmation that deployable capital is forming.
P3Risk-on
DXY
Macro Breadth
Macro breadth. A weak dollar helps BTC-specific rallies broaden into ETH and alts; a strong dollar makes rallies narrower.
What unlocks
Three tiers. Each needs more signals green.
Tiers set scope – what you're allowed to buy. Positioning sets sizing – how much of that scope you actually fill. Majors needs two gate signals; Majors + All Alts needs four. Riskier buckets wait for stronger confirmation.
AMajorsActive
Requires: 2 / 4 gate signals green
BTC 70%ETH 30%
BTC and ETH only. Cap depends on the specific deployable 2-gate combo.
BMajors + Select Alts
Requires: 3 / 4 gate signals green
BTC 56%
Framework proof
Five historical cases, same rule set.
The point is not to claim perfect foresight. The useful test is whether the framework sized exposure differently when liquidity, breadth, rotation, and positioning changed.
Narratives are downstream of liquidity. Watch the flows, not the tweets.
02
Confirmation before conviction
A signal is a fact, not a forecast. We act only after the market votes.
03
Evidence over arithmetic
Priority weights explain hierarchy. Cap comes from the historical gate-combo lookup.
04
Same model, every cycle
Rules are deterministic. No interpretation, no heroics, no vibes.
05
A framework, not advice
An instrument panel for thinking in macro. You decide what to do with it.
Get in
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Rotation marker. BTC.D rolls over during alt rotation, not before it – treat it as confirmation that capital is already moving down the curve.
P5Risk-off
ETHBTC
Alt Allocation Modifier
BTC/ETH allocation modifier. Never gates deployment; a depressed-base recovery can justify ETH overweight after scored gates permit deployment.
P1-P4 are scored gates. The count decides scope, while the specific combo sets the evidence-anchored cap. The priority score (P1=10, P2=5, P3=4, P4=1) is diagnostic. P5 shifts the BTC/ETH split but never gates deployment.
ETH 24%
Established 20%
20% opens to Established alts. Most of book still in majors.
Full cascade. Momentum and Opportunistic buckets unlock at the tail.
BTC/ETH split defaults to 70/30. It tilts to 40/60 ETH when P5 recovery aligns with BTC.D rotation, and to 80/20 BTC when P5 no-overweight/default appears alongside P4 alt de-risk.
Core state: Majors + Select Alts via P1+P2+P3, 95% cap. Brief P4 rotation windows lifted the framework to Majors + All Alts / 100%.
Honest Read
The framework captures the bull market, but not as an all-signals-green state for 19 months. P1 turned off before the May 2021 crash, and P4/P5 are narrower than old dominance-down / ETHBTC-up language implied.
Best cascade, but not continuously 5/5.
Nov 2021 → Nov 2022
2022 Bear Market — All Red
BTC −77%
P1P2P3P4P5
No gates | cap 0%
Framework Read
No tier: 0/4 green gates, diagnostic priority score 0/20. 0% deployment.
Honest Read
The framework would not have called the bottom. Its value here was avoiding the drawdown while P1/P2/P3 were hostile.
All red = stay out.
Jan 2024 → Mar 2024
BTC ETF Launch — Majors Setup
BTC +75%
P1P2P3P4P5
P1+P2 | cap 75%
Framework Read
Majors via P1+P2, 75% cap. DXY >102 blocks breadth; no P4/P5, so default 70/30 BTC/ETH split.
Honest Read
The framework would have participated strongly in majors, but it would not have called for broad alt exposure because P3/P4/P5 failed to confirm breadth.
P1+P2 unlocks Majors, not alts.
Apr 14 → May 19, 2021
May 2021 Crash — Floor Test
BTC −54%
P1P2P3P4P5
P2+P3+P4 | cap 40% base / 5% floor
Framework Read
Majors + Select Alts via P2+P3+P4, 40% cap. Positioning 3 TRIM compresses the walkthrough to the 5% macro floor.
Honest Read
Positioning said reduce, and P1 being off meant this was not sized like a full-cascade regime. The framework could not predict the catalysts, but it did identify the fragile combo and stretched positioning.
Positioning said reduce, not exit.
May 2025 → Aug 2025
May-Aug 2025 — Stablecoin + DXY Unlock
BTC +30% BTC / +73% ETH
P1P2P3P4P5
P2+P3 | cap 45%
Framework Read
Majors via P2+P3, 45% cap. P5 recovery supports a 60/40 BTC/ETH tilt while P4 is not confirmed; no Select Alts unlock.
Honest Read
The old P1+P2+P3+P4 read overstated the signal quality. The final framework participates, especially in ETH, but at a much lower cap because P1 and P4 are absent.